The betting trends for the $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf are obvious. If history repeats look for a Euro shipper to take down the top prize.
Euro invaders making their last start across the pond have accounted for 23 of the 39 winners (there was one deadheat) of the Breeders’ Cup Turf including 18 of the last 23.
Of the Euro winners it is often not the “obvious” one that wins the race. Among the highly regarded Euro invaders to lose to a fellow Euro were Tarnawa (2-1) last year, Magical (2-1 in 2020), Highland Reel (7-5 in 2017), Golden Horn (4-5 in 2015), The Fugue (3-2 in 2013) and Behkabad (6-5) in 2010.
The betting favorite has won the Turf 11 times in the 38-year history of the race. We had back to back chalk before Tarnawa paid $11.40 in 2020 at Keeneland.
The 2018 winner Enable was the shortest price in history, returning just $3.60 and topping a $2 All Euro exacta that paid $26.80. She was the first betting favorite to score since Conduit ($3.80) in 2009. Bricks and Mortar paid just $4.00 in 2019 for trainer Chad Brown.
The top exacta in the history of the Turf was in 1989 with the Neil Drysdale trained Prized (8-1) and Sierra Roberta (25-1) combing for a $818.00 payoff.
In 11 of the last 15 years the Turf winner had a previous win at 1 ½ miles.
The outside posts have fared well recently, the 11-post winning twice and the 12 post once in the past nine years. Found and Bricks and Mortar each broke from the nine post. Yibir broke from the eight post last year.
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Aiden O’Brien Barn Tour
Aiden O’Brien has won the Turf six times from 30 starters including three times in the last nine years. Three of his winners have come with three-year-olds.
Horses prepping at Belmont Park have fared very well, eight using the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and four having run in the Man O’ War (G1). The Irish Champion Stakes (G1) has produced four Turf winners.
The Arc has produced a dozen winners, with Enable in 2018 the lone winner that actually won the Arc.
There have been 10 three-year-olds that have won the Turf, the most recent being Yibir last year. Eight of the 10 were Euro based. The exceptions were Manila in 1986 and Prized in 1989.
Five fillies have won the Breeders’ Cup Turf, and they were all based overseas: Tarnawa (2020), Enable (2018), Found (2015), Miss Alleged (1991) and Pebbles (1985).
Only four Turf winners have taken the field gate to wire, the most recent being Highland Reel ($9.60) at Santa Anita in 2016.