Belmont Park
Belmont Stakes Day
Saturday June 11
By Michael Dempsey
Wager on the Belmont Stakes at PlayUp Racebook

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Weather: Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 76F. Winds ESE at 5 to 10 mph.

BEL Race 1 Alw $80,000N1X (11:20 ET)

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 FAIR
#7 Win for Gold
 A
 2-1
 2-1
#6 Tap'n de Bank
 A 7-2
 3-1
#8 Unique Unions
 B
 3-1
 4-1
#2 Quickflash
 C
 8-1
 8-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis: Win for Gold pressed the early pace and took over in the stretch with a good looking maiden win in his debut at 12-1. Three he beat that day came back to graduate in their next starts.  He came back with a good effort in a runner up finish in his first start at this condition over the main track here at seven furlongs. Only one runner has come out of his last race to run back, sixth place finisher Colormepazzi beating state bred allowance foes at Finger Lakes on May 31. The RRod trainee owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and looks as if he still has some upside making just his third career start here. Kendrick sticks and the colt popped a bullet work on June 4.
Tap'n de Bank came off a seven month layoff with a smart looking maiden score here going 6 1/2 furlongs, taking the field gate to wire at 9-1. He made his debut last September where he tracked the early pace and tired to finish fifth. He should be right with our top pick early. Cox is 30% winners with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff. He looks capable of moving forward off his maiden win.

BEL Race 2 Alw $92,000N1X (11:55 ET)

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 FAIR
#4 Strong Quality
 A
 6-1
 4-1
#3 Set Sail
 B
 7-2
 7-2
#1 Power Agenda / 1a Bright Future
 B
 2-1
 3-1
#6 Three Jokers
 C
 4-1
 9-2
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis: Strong Quality was beaten just a head last out against Alw-1 optional claimers at Fair Grounds in his first start against winners. He was 3 1/2 lengths clear of the third place finisher and the fifth and sixth place finishers exited that race to win next out. The Casse trainee has shown improvement with each outing and has worked sharply for his return off nearly a three month break. He has some tactical speed and picks up Ortiz. Decent value if he goes off near his 6-1 morning line.
Set Sail tracked the early pace while saving ground and faded to finish a well beaten sixth in the Peter Pan (G3) last out going nine furlongs in hi first start against winners. Note he was sent off as the favorite in that outing.He broke his maiden two back at Santa Anita in gate to wire fashion by 7 1/2 lengths in his second career outing. Three he beat that day have come back to run with a second the best finish. He makes his first start here for the Mott barn that is 17% winners with newcomers to the barn. Looks like he should bounce back with a better effort with the cut back and class drop.

BEL Race 3 The Acorn G1 (12:33 ET)

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 FAIR
#4 Matareya
 A
 6-5
 7-5
#5 Echo Zulu
 B
 3-5
 1-1
#1 Dream Lith
 C
 15-1
 12-1
#2 Inventing
 C 20-1
 18-1
Race Rating: $
Analysis: Matareya stretches out to a mile off a sharp win in the Eight Belles (G2) on oaks Day at Churchill Downs. It was her third win in a row, her career best coming two back in her 8 1/2 length win in the Beaumont (G3) at Keeneland at seven furlongs. She has two routes, a fifth in the Alcibiades (G1) in her second career start and a second against allowance foes at Oaklawn Park going two turn mile to Secret Oath. A one turn mile looks as if it will suit her for Cox who is 32% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. She is likely going to be closer to the pace here as she can't let the chalk get away with an easy lead.
Echo Zulu is going to be tough to beat. She was fourth in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) last out which was her first career loss. She was brilliant as a juvenile winning all four starts including a romp in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) by just a nose in her three-year-old debut off a 4 1/2 month break. The cut back to a mile should suit her but her price is going to be very much on the short side in this short field.

BEL Race 4 The Just a Game G1 (1:08 ET)

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 FAIR
#2 Regal Glory
 A
 6-5
 6-5
#3 Speak of the Devil
 B
 1-1
 8-5
#4 In Italian
 C
 9-2
 5-1
#1 Leggs Galore
 C 12-1
 12-1
Race Rating: $
Analysis: Regal Glory leads a trio of runners sent out by the Brown barn in this compact field of five. Brown won this race four years in a row before Charlie Appleby saddled last year's winner Althiqa. Our top pick ran fourth in this race last year at 13-1 and since then has won six races including her last three starts. She was an impressive winner of the Jenny Wiley (G1) last out at Keeneland over good ground off a 2 1/2 month break with a career top speed figure. She has shown an ability to come from off the pace or even set the pace as she did in her win three back in the Matriarc (G1) at Del mar last November. She is going to be tough and likely the short priced favorite here./
Speak of the Devil is also sent out by Brown and is the even money favorite. She made her U.S. debut in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) on Derby day and es sent off at 6-5 and drew clear to win by 2 3/4 penlights and the margin could have been more. She was beaten just a head and a nose in a third place finish in the Prix Rothschild (G1) at Deauville last summer. Brown is 29% winners with runners making their second start off a 45-180 day break.

BEL Race 5 The Brooklyn G2 (1:47 ET)

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 FAIR
#3 Warrant
 A
 3-1
 5-2
#2 Max Player
 B
 6-1
 5-1
#1 Lone Rock
 B
 2-1
 5-2
#7 Fearless
 C 3-1
 4-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis: Warrant regressed last out as the beaten chalk in the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland where he tracked the early pace and came up short late in a fourth place finish. The runner up Dynamic One came back to win the Blame at Churchill Downs in his next outing on June 4. Two back the colt earned a career top in a neck loss in the Santa Anita 'cap (G1) going 1 1/4 miles. He was nine lengths clear of the third place finisher Stiletto Boy who came back to win the Californian (G2) on April 30. The Cox trainee owns a solid pace profile throughout and while he has not been 1 1/2 miles he has a decent enough pedigree and looks as if he should be able to sit a good tracking trip just off the pace and pounce.
Max Player put it all together last year after getting placed more forwardly, winning the Suburban(G2) here in the slop and then the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Saratoga going 1 1/4 miles. He then tossed in a real dud in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) and was put on the bench for six months. His return was not pretty, never getting untracked in a seventh place finish in the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs. He is back on a surface he likes better and picks up Ortiz. Decent looking works since his last outing and he should show more second off the bench for Asmussen. He may end up getting overlooked on the tote.

BEL Race 6 The Woody Stephens G1 (2:22 ET)

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#1 Jack Christopher
 A
 1-2
 4-5
#4 Morello
 B
 9-2
 4-1
#3 Wit
 C
 7-2
 4-1
#2 Pappacap
 C
 10-1
 10-1
Race Rating: $
Analysis: Jack Christoper came back off a seven month layoff with a much the best win in the pat day Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs, drawing off to win by 3 3/4 lengths. He won both of his starts as a juvie, breaking his maiden in his debut and then winning the Champagne (G1) last October over the main track here. he cuts back to seven furlongs here which may not be ideal but he catches a field here without much early speed and he draws the rail. he should be able to control the pace and is going to be very tough to beat in this spot at  a very short price.
Morello was off a beat slow and not a threat in the Wood memorial (G2) last out and I was expecting a much better effort out of him. He won his first three starts by a combined 13 3/4 lengths including the Jimmy Winkfield at Aqueduct going seven panels in his second career start with a solid figure. This colt is better than he showed last out and has enough tactical speed ti be closer to the pace with a better break here. Picking up Rosario is a plus and the cut back to seven furlongs should suit him.

BEL Race 7 The Ogden Phipps G1 (3:05 ET)

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 FAIR
#3 Malathaat
 A
 5-2
 2-1
#5 Search Results
 B
 9-2
 4-1
#1 Letruska
 C
 6-5
 9-5
#4 Clairiere
 C
 3-1
 4-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis: Malathaat came back off a 5 1/2 month layoff with a sharp win in the Doubledogdare and steps into a tougher spot here. She was really good last year winning 3 of her 5 starts and running a game third in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1), beaten just a half length. She broke her maiden over the main track here and a one turn route fits her well. She should be able to stay relatively close to the pacesetter and is going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.
Search Results caught a muddy track last out winning the Ruffian (G2) at a one turn mile over the surface here. She won the Acorn (G1) here last June in her first trip over the main track. She was beaten just a neck to our top pick in last year's Kentucky oaks (G1). She makes her third start off the bench for the Brown barn and looks as if she is sitting on a top effort coming in here.
Letruska really tossed in a clunker in the Distaff last fall in a 10th place finish, getting used up in an early speed duel. She has come back with back to back wire jobs, last out winning the Apple Blossom 'Cap (G1) at Oaklawn Park matching her career top. She owns a good edge in early and mid pace numbers and may prove tough to catch here. The main knock is the price which seems likely to go south from her 6-5 morning line.

BEL Race 8 The Jaipur G1 (3:53 ET)

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 FAIR
#3 True Valour
 A
 12-1
 6-1
#5 Arrest Me Red
 A 5-2
 3-1
#4 Casa Creed
 B
 9-2
 4-1
#13 Gregorian Chant
 C
 8-1
 8-1
#8 Scuttlebuzz
 C 6-1
 6-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis: True Valour took the field gate to wire to win the King T Leatherbury at Laurel Park going 5 1/2 furlongs in gate to wire fashion. It was his first start since a sixth place finish in the Al Quoz Sprint (G1) in Dubai in march of '21.  The fourth place finisher in that race was Can the Queen who came back to win the The Very one at Pimlico on Preakness Day. He is going to need to move forward off his last effort to win here but has the tactical edge as there is not much early zip signed up to go here. The eight-year-old owns solid early and mid pace numbers and if he is able to shake loose early is a danger to wire this group at a decent price.
Arrest Me Red was a smart winner of the Turf Sprint (G2) on the Oaks Day undercard at Churchill Downs. The colt was making his second start off a 5 1/2 month break and matched his career top speed fig in the win. The runner up Bran came back to win the Daytona (G3) at Santa Anita in his next outing on May 29. The Ward trainee has now won 6 of his 8 trips on turf and is a perfect 3 for 3 at today's six furlong distance. He has the tactical speed to be right up front early and fits well in this spot. The colt won the Belmont Turf Sprint Championship here last October at this distance.

BEL Race 9 The Metropolitan G1 (4:43 ET)

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#2 Speaker's Corner
 A
 8-5
 8-5
#1 Flightline
 A 3-5
 4-5
#3 Aloha West
 B
 6-1
 5-1
#4 Happy Saver
 C
 8-1
 8-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis: Speaker's Corner has the best shot of beating the budding superstar Flightline. Our top pick has won three in a row, taking the Carter 'Cap (G1) last out going seven furlongs at the Big A in an impressive outing. The colt battled for the early lead, took command and drew away to win by 4 1 /2 lengths with a career top speed fig. The runner up Reinvestment Risk came back to run second in the Churchill Downs (G1), the fifth place finisher Drafted won the Runhappy (G3) and Mr. Prospector in his next two starts while the seventh place finisher First Captain won the Pimlico Special (G3) in his next outing. The Mott trainee has a pair of wins at a one turn mile and is perfect in two trips over the main track here.
Flightline makes his first start since winning the Malibu (G1) last December by 11 1/2 lengths. He has now won his three career starts by a combined 37 1/2 lengths. The runner up in the Malibu was baby Yoda who was beaten a neck in the Pelican at Tampa Bay Downs next out and has won starter allowance races in his last two starts. The Sadler trainee goes a mile for the first time in his career while coming back off a 5 1/2 month break. The colt has been working smartly for his return for Sadler who is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The most logical winner here but at 3-5 or 2-5 is worth a small play against today.

BEL Race 10 The Manhattan G1 (5:38 ET)

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 FAIR
#9 Santin
 A
 7-2
 3-1
#4 Adhamo
 A 4-1
 4-1
#2 Gufo
 B
 3-1
 7-2
#8 Highland Chief
 C
 6-1
 9-2
#1 L'Imperator
 C 15-1
 8-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis: Santino tracked the early pacesetter and finished gamely to win the Old Forrester Turf Classic (G1) last out at Churchill Downs by a neck going today's 1 1/4 mile distance. He earned a career top and a close up fourth and then a second in two trips at Fair grounds to start off his year. He was beaten just a neck last fall at Del Mar in the Hollywood Derby (G1) which was his stakes debut and just his third career start. he overcame a tough post and came with a good late run to just miss. He should get a good trip sitting just off the pace and looks as if this Walsh trainee may still have some upside.
Adhamo was the beaten favorite in the Old Forrester. The Brown trainee raced near the back of the pack while wide and made a mild late run to finish third. He was beaten just a head two back in the Fair Grounds (G3) in his first start since landing in the U.S. and that effort was off a four month break. He won a Group 3 and is Group 2 placed in France. Looks as if he may get some pace to run at here and the added ground should suit him. Brown has saddled the winner of this race a record seven times including the last three.

BEL Race 11 The Belmont G1 (6:44 ET)

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 FAIR
#6 Mo Donegal
 A
 5-2
 5-2
#5 Creative Minister
 A 6-1
 9-2
#1 We the People
 B
 2-1
 3-1
#8 Barber Road
 C
 10-1
 8-1
#4 Rich Strike
 C 7-2
 9-2
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis: Mo Donegal was my top pick in the Kentucky Derby and he should have run better. Her was off a beat slow and outrun early and ended up coming very wide, rallying to finish a non-threatening fifth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot. Two back at Aqueduct he won the Wood memorial by a neck with a good late run. The runner up in that race was Early Voting who went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1). The key here is Irad is going to have to get this guy off to a better start and he will need to sit much closer to the pace, which he should be able to do as the early fractions should be moderate. Pletcher has won this race three times and his last two were with runners that skipped the Preakness. Tapwrit was sixth in the Derby and won the 2017 Belmont and Palace Malice was 12th in the Derby and won this race in 2013. Pletcher's other Belmont win came with the filly Rags to Riches who was exiting her win in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). We got 10-1 in the Derby with and are going to have to settle for a smaller price here.
Creative Minster ran well in the Preakness, stalked the early pace from mid pack and finishing up well for third, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. This guy has shown improvement with each outing and looks as if he can handle more ground. He is out of a Tapit mare that has dropped four stakes placed runners including  Battalion Runner ($257,600) who was second in the 2017 Wood Memorial (G2). Decent value if he goes off near his 6-1 morning line.
We the People bounced back off his seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) with a gate to wire score in the Peter Pan (G3) where he took the field gate to wire and drew clear to win by 10 1/4 lengths. The colt got way with fairly easy fractions and that may occur again today s there is not much early zip signed up to go here. The colt has the tactical edge here and breaks from the rail with Prat. The main knock is going to be the short price.
Barber Road was sixth in the Kentucky Derby and is flying under the radar here this week. This guy was right in the mix in all four Derby preps at Oaklawn Park with three seconds and a third. His runner up in the Arkansas Derby (G1) was solid. He is picking up Rosario and has a shot of being in the mix at a decent price.

BEL Race 12 Md $75,000 (7:29 ET)

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 FAIR
#10 Necco
 A
 15-1
 8-1
#11 Nothingtoseehere
 A 12-1
 8-1
#8 Al's Rocket
 B
 2-1
 3-1
#12 North Carolina
 B
 9-5
 5-2
#7 Floski's Flight
 C 5-1
 8-1
Race Rating: $$$
Analysis: Necco was sent off at 25-1 in his debut here on may 1 going seven furlongs. he was not away cleanly and after running next to last while saving ground came with a move into the stretch but lost all chance to pick up a piece when having to steady in the stretch. The gelding drops in for a tag while adding lasix here for his second career outing. He gets  a jock upgrade to McCarthy and should move forward off his debut effort with a more alert break and better trip. He is out of an Empire Maker mare that has dropped two other runners, both winners including one turf winner. A near bullet drill out of the gate on June 4.
Nothingtoseehere was outrun in a fifth place finish in his debut, sent off at 6-1 in a five horse field on the main track at the Big A going a mile on the main track. The winner Rational Choice came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next start and the third place finisher Writeitontheice came back to graduate in his next outing on April 23 at Laurel Park. Mott drops him in for a tag here and is 35% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. The colt is out of a Broken Vow mare that has dropped three other foals to race including turf stakes winners Stays in Vegas ($419,279) and Miss Technicality ($283,460). The Mott trainee should move forward with the surface switch and is going to be a decent price in this spot.

BEL Race 13 Alw $80,000N1X (8:05 ET)

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 FAIR
#5 No Payne
 A
 10-1
 6-1
#12 Palace Gossip
 A 3-1
 3-1
#4 Shamalamadingdong
 B
 6-1
 6-1
#7 Happy Hill Lil
 C 10-1
 8-1
#1 Solib
 C 8-1
 8-1
Race Rating: $$
Analysis: No Payne makes her second start off the bench for the Handal barn. Last out off a five month break she was bumped and away last at this level and came with a good late run while wide to check in third at 41-1.The winner Sassy Malissa came back to ruin a good second start against state bred Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing on May 27. Her maiden breaker came at 5 1/2 furlongs at the Spa last summer. She is going to get a good pace set up here and there is plenty of early zip signed up. She should move forward second off the layoff for Handal who has been sending out live runners at the meet, 9 of his first 16 starters landing in the exacta.
Palace Gossip beat our top pick last out by 1 1/2 lengths two back when she was coming back off a five month layoff. She returned on May 14 to run a game third, beaten 3/4 of a length where she got clear in the stretch but could not hold off the top pair late. That was at seven panels and the cut back to six furlongs here will suit her. She makes her third start off the bench for the Tony D barn that was on fire around this time last year but has cooled off this year hitting at just a 9% clip. 

 
Good Luck today!

Please check all program numbers and post times before wagering.
Prices listed are the morning line odds followed by fair odds.
Wager on the Belmont Stakes day card at PlayUp Racebook.

Race Ratings:
$$$$: The strongest plays of the day. Some days there will not be a race at this rating, but when there is, it's straight to the betting window.
$$$: These races are the better wagering opportunities of the day. I either have a strong opinion on my top pick or feel this is a great race for value in the exotics.
$$: These races are usually races where I do not have a strong opinion, or feel my top pick may end up going off at a short price. A moderate investment only and spread races when playing horizontal bets.
$: These races are in most cases a pass. Usually races with short fields offering little value or just inscrutable. Small investment or pass and spread races when playing horizontal bets.

For exacta players, I usually will play my "A" horses over my "B" and "C" horses that offer value. I rarely box. For trifecta players, as a general rule I do not play trifectas or superfectas in fields of eight or less. When playing trifectas, I usually will key my "A" horses in the top spot adding my "B" horses in the second spot over "C" horses in the third spot.  In the rolling doubles, I usually use my "A" horses in each race, using "B" and "C" horses only when they offer good betting value. I generally do not play Pick 3's and focus on Pick 4's and Pick 5's with reduced takeout. I have each of my top five horses ranked "A" "B" or "C" and play multiple tickets.