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NHL Parity: Why It Exists and Why You Should Care

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The Los Angeles Kings, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Detroit Red Wings, Anaheim Ducks, Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, and New Jersey Devils.

These are the past nine Stanley Cup champions.

Notice anything peculiar?

Keeping in mind the 2004-05 lockout, we’ve seen no repeat champs in the National Hockey League over the past decade.

No dynasties. No two-of-three. No three-of-five.

Just good old-fashioned parity.

But why?

The Stanley Cup playoffs are, without question, the most grueling stretch of postseason games across all four major sports. With a possible 28 games to be played – approximately 34% of a full regular season – the league’s playoff format calls for nearly two months of some of the most grueling, draining competition. But that’s nothing new, as the current format has been in place since the 1992-93 season and the Red Wings, Devils, and Colorado Avalanche accounted for seven of the ten titles between then and the 2001-02 season.

On that same note, the NBA adopted a nearly identical playoff format in 2006 and has seen five different champions since then.

Still, there has to be a reason.

There must be an explanation for why the playing field has leveled across the board. A reason why we just saw the No. 8 seed Los Angeles Kings handily defeat the No. 6 New Jersey Devils to take the title after first knocking out the 2011 runner-up Vancouver Canucks – in five games.

The most logical answer?

The NHL has finally grown up.

It started to sprout its facial hair in the early 2000s and is in full playoff-beard-mode after a string of postseasons following the lockout that are starting to make even the casual NHL fan salivate.

This is due mainly to how the league has developed after the addition of nine expansion teams in a 10-year-span from 1991 to 2001. Throw in three teams relocating in that time and another last year and there’s been plenty of shuffling around the NHL.

The inclusion of these teams drastically drained the talent pool, slowly leveling out the amount of star-power each team could retain.

Sure, some pseudo-dynasties remained initially, such as the ‘90s Red Wings, but gone are the days in which teams like the Montreal Canadiens win six titles in a decade like they did in the ‘60s.

Now that things have settled down and the dust has cleared, we’re starting to see what an evenly-distributed league looks like.

And it’s outstanding.

Not only does the notion that any team can take home the Cup heading into postseason play make literally every series interesting, but when a different team is winning the title every year it creates more of a buzz around the nation. It’s good for the game and the NHL brand. Did anyone in Los Angeles even realize that hockey was a nationally-recognized sport before June came around?

This whole phenomenon is not a fluke.

Assuming it isn’t, and that it exists because of how the league has developed and spread out its talent, we’re in for a great ride over the next decade.

Perhaps we’ll even see another nine or ten teams win the big one.

Unless, of course, an agreement with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is not reached.

Keep your fingers crossed.

It’s worth it.

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LA Lakers: How The West Will Be Won

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The first three weeks of the NBA offseason have been as exciting as any in recent memory. With trades, signings, and players switching teams galore, the NBA has graciously helped fill the void for us sports fans as we count down the days (48!) until the kickoff of the NFL season – this despite the fact that nothing has even happened with the biggest offseason name, Dwight Howard.

There have been two big winners this offseason. For one, the Brooklyn Nets vaulted into the top-4 of the Eastern Conference by resigning stud point guard Deron Williams and trading for perennial All-Star Joe Johnson. While they lost out on trading for Howard and curiously gave Brooke Lopez (the “good” Lopez) a max contract, the Nets will compete with the Heat, Celtics, Bulls (if Rose comes back) and Pacers for Eastern Conference supremacy.

While we don’t yet know how the Howard/Magic saga will ultimately play out and what jersey the top center in the league will don next year, the big winner of the offseason has been the Los Angeles Lakers, pulling off a sign-and-trade deal for future Hall of Fame point guard Steve Nash. Los Angeles parted ways only with draft picks and cash, and Kobe finally has the point guard he’s never had.

Skeptics will say Nash is too old, Kobe doesn’t excel playing off the ball, and this will be a chemistry experiment gone wrong with Nash, Kobe, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum competing for shots, but they are going to be proved very, very wrong. The point guard is the quarterback of the offense – a good one makes the offense click; a subpar one leads to disjointed play. For the first time in a decade and a half, the Lakers have the former.

While Nash isn’t as young or athletic as the current dominant point guards in the league like Rose, Chris Paul, Williams and Rajon Rondo, he can help the Lakers win their first title since 2010 without being as athletic or dominant as these other guys. All he has to do is push the ball up the court, find ways to get Kobe the ball without Bryant having to expend all his energy creating his own shots, and light a fire under Gasol and Bynum.

Nash’s ability to achieve these tasks is what separates him from Ramon Sessions, Steve Blake, Derek Fisher, Smush Parker, Javaris Crittenton, Jordan Farmar and the rest of the scrub point guards that have run the Lakers offense during the Kobe era. Nash has averaged more than 10.5 assists per game in seven of the last eight seasons – a Laker PG hasn’t averaged more than 8.5 apg since 1996.

We all saw what happened in last year’s NBA Playoffs when the Lakers went down to the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games in the second round. It was Kobe playing against five. Gasol shrank, as did Bynum.

And the point guards? To say Steve Blake and Ramon Sessions were disastrous is an insult to “disastrous.” This after the Lakers “upgraded” to Sessions from Fisher near the end of the season. Against the Thunder, Blake and Sessions combined for 11.4 points, 4.2 assists and 4.0 turnovers per game. In Nash’s 118 career playoff games, he’s averaged 17.3 points, 8.9 assists and 3.2 turnovers per game. Not a bad upgrade for Los Angeles.

With Nash’s stats, two MVP trophies and reputation of being an outstanding teammate, you can see why Kobe is in prime position to get his sixth ring and tie MJ – and potentially beat him with his seventh in 2013-14.

Nash will finally get his opportunity to earn the championship ring he’s deserved for so long, but never had the supporting cast to get.

The Dallas Mavericks took 12 steps back by not being able to sign Williams (his hometown team), instead trading for PG Darren Collison, and never really having a chance at Howard. The Clippers took a major hit with Blake Griffin tearing his meniscus in a Team USA practice, and a full, quick recovery for next season is no guarantee.

Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis will improve an already daunting Heat team. Marcus Camby and Raymond Felton are going to make the Knicks tougher. The Spurs and Thunder will be great once again.

But the Lakers – finally filling the hole at point guard that’s been lacking since Magic Johnson retired for good in 1996 – will prove to be the best in the NBA for the 18th time now with Nash distributing the ball. Oh, and there’s still a chance they trade for that Howard fellow.

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NBA Draft: Problems and Solutions

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After the most recent NBA Draft Lottery, reports and theories have focused on the possibility of a rigged lottery. These unsubstantiated rumors deflect from the real takeaway from the lottery: Bad NBA teams still have an incentive to lose games late in the season.

The worst record in the NBA does not guarantee the first pick in the draft (like it does in the NFL) but it does guarantee the highest likelihood of getting the first pick, which still creates an incentive to lose games.

In any business, incentives must align with goals. The NBA’s goal is to provide fans with an entertaining product on the court and on TV. Teams have an incentive to play attractive basketball because fans and sponsors like winners. However, teams recognize that it’s far less economically risky to try to become a winner via the draft than via free agency. Teams also recognize that having low picks is the best way to make the most of the draft and get a true impact player. If that young player doesn’t pan out, the cost was just a rookie contract rather than a veteran max deal. So, if you’re a bad NBA team (and if you are, few all-stars will want to join your team unless you’re giving them a max contract), it’s absolutely smart business to tank the rest of the season, give yourself a high probability of getting a lottery pick, and worst case you eat a small contract and admirably tank the next season. Best case you draft Kevin Durant.

Now, the consequences of this tanking approach is criticism from the media and a decrease in home attendance. The consequences of making a bad acquisition in free agency is the same media and fan criticism, plus financially crippling the club for usually about five years. I think any coach or GM would rather deal with criticism from the media than criticism from the guy who writes their checks.

An alternative to an amateur draft can be seen in nearly any other country in the world.

Soccer is played professionally in basically every country and all of these leagues do not have an amateur draft, but instead punish the worst team in the league with a demotion to a lower league where the only thing scarcer than revenue is talented players. Plenty of relegated teams earn promotion back into the top league the next year and a handful keep falling into lower league obscurity, but the teams that hurt the competitive balance in the league are not invited back until they have proven they can compete at the top level.

America does not have sufficient minor leagues to pull off a relegation and promotion system but we can learn from this system that poor performers should be punished, not rewarded.

Think of your own job or responsibilities. If you work on a sales team and you make the fewest sales during a given period, do you think you’ll be rewarded with the best leads heading into the next period? No. You’ll either be fired or have to scrap and work hard to reestablish yourself.

So, now for the solution. There are 30 teams in the NBA and as fun as the annual debate is over whether the NCAA Champion could beat the Wizards, all 30 teams are stacked from top to bottom with actual NBA talent. 16 of those 30 teams make the playoffs. Several factors could lead to a team missing the playoffs, but lack of talent is not one of them. Lack of ability to motivate and optimize talent is often the reason, which means the team needs a management change, not the best 20 year-old in the country.

All NBA teams (should) have a singular goal to win a championship every year and that means the 14 teams that don’t make the playoffs failed their fans and shareholders equally because they won’t win a championship that year. Why reward the team that failed the most?

Punishing the worst team wouldn’t work because there really isn’t an American comparable to relegation and any other punishment would probably cause further damage to the competitive balance in the NBA.

So, the best solution is to treat all failures equal. Each of the 14 teams that missed the playoffs should have an equal chance to win the draft lottery: 7.15 percent or a 1 in 14 chance.

First of all, you don’t need the no. 1 overall pick to select a franchise player. Many of the best active players in the NBA were not picked first. Kobe Bryant was picked 13th, Andre Iguodala 9th, Rajon Rondo 21st. Having the top pick does not mean your team will land the top player. Ask Kwame Brown or Greg Oden.

Many consistent lottery teams are there every year because they stick with an inept GM and an uninspiring coach. This proposed system will expose those managers that either evaluate talent poorly or are unable to maximize it.

Most importantly, with this proposed system, once you are mathematically out of the playoffs, you have no incentive to continue losing. So incentives and goals are aligned.

There are many rich and powerful people involved in the NBA. But make no mistake that fans drive the league since they fill the arenas and buy the replica jerseys. The league would be making a huge mistake to continue disrespecting the fans by pretending that teams don’t tank their seasons to win the lottery.

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